Maybe we've had our "recession?"

Our local paper has an article about the mixed economic indicators that the economy has been sending. I’m wondering if the worst of it is over, perhaps.

2022 was pretty grim for investors. The S and P 500 was down 19.4 percent for the year.

At year’s end, many investors were selling some losing stocks to lower their tax obligations. This results in a temporary distortion.

It’s a bit bold of me to suggest that smart prognosticators (such as Jamie Dimon) might be overstating pessimism in their warnings about “headwinds.”

The pandemic took a lot of folks out of the workforce.

Employment has held up well and it’s been called a very tough environment in which to attract workers, according to an HR executive I’ve spoken with. (The toughest he’s seen and he’s been at it for a long while.)

Every small business owner I talk to isn’t without work to do.

Inflation shows some welcome signs of ebbing.

The headlines include stories of dramatic examples of financial froth being burned off. (Crypto, an electric car company, and a social media platform.)

Then there is the psychological dynamic. We've come through an economic year that’s been charitably seen as underwhelming. At some point the cycle turns in the other direction.

Is it possible that there is some pent up demand we’re missing?

I’m no expert for sure. Don’t claim to be. I wouldn't be too shocked to see an uptick. We’ll see.

Oh-and- Happy New Year.