Maybe A Soft Landing?

Lots of folks grumble about the Fed. But think about it. They must have exponentially more data to parse than a few years ago. So, the Fed people can think probabilistically with much greater precision today.

My Italian born grandfather (Calabria) used to make wine. I noticed there was usually some (mostly) subtle variation from batch to batch. When I go to the store today and buy wine, the same wine always tastes just like the one I bought last time. And the time before that. The world has become more precise in lots of ways.

Data isn’t everything. Before GE imploded a few years ago, we were all enamored with their famed Crotonville Management Development center. They had plenty of highly precise data. Still, the company went south. Some people need to be able to step back and look at the big whole picture. You can get lost in and blinded by the minutiae.

I have always thought that most people do the best job they can with what they have to work with under the circumstances. Almost no one goes out and TRIES to screw things up.

The economy grew by a respectable 2.9% in the last quarter of the year just ended. I don’t pay TOO much attention to the financial headlines because (on the computer/smartphone) the writers are trying to get you to click on their (dramatic) stories. (Clickbait.)

All this to say that the Fed might be getting it right this time. It is quite possible that a Goldilocks (much hoped for) soft landing is what is occurring.