If This Is A Recession, It's An Odd One
Full Disclosure: I’m certainly not an economist. Merely an interested observer. Technically today, with two successive GDP contractions, we are —by the old definition-in a recession. We may end up in one but I’m guessing if that happens it will be shallow and brief.
Companies have become much more adroit at measuring and controlling costs. They are also lighter on their feet and can make data driven adaptations quickly.
Everyone who is in business that I get the chance to chat with reports having plenty to do. (Most of these folks are in some aspect of the construction industry.)
Shockingly high prices for some materials a few months back have dialed back some.
Earnings season has been largely pretty good. Yes, there are a few cases where earnings have not been spectacular but overall it has been a decent enough picture.
There are still more jobs out there than there are people to fill them.
I was noticing the other day how much more communicative the Fed has become. Back in the Alan Greenspan “Maestro” days, it was much less so. Discerning his indirect hypnotic utterances was a fun, if mystifying, parlor game.
We splurged and went to a pretty nice restaurant for my birthday. The bill was high enough to make me blink a couple of times. But the place was packed.
I am wondering if the recent market plunge into bear territory overshot to a degree.
We’ll know, of course, soon enough. Predicting the future is a dumb thing to do. But, some of my associates on the right (a few of them still speak to me) chortled dismissively when I predicted (on these pages) a Biden win months before the election. So, time will tell.